KALPOLY paper desk — technical view

Updated 2026-08-31 10:43 PM ET · every stream, every scan pass

Plain-English P&L summary is in account.html. This page is the engine room.

Equity

$20,655

Closed score

+$15,655

Open stake

$2,570

If open settled at cost

$18,085

Calibration (predicted p vs actual, closed tickets)

Rows dimmed below n=5 are not enough tickets to trust. Gap = mean predicted probability of our side minus actual win rate; positive means we're overconfident, negative means underconfident. Brier score: lower is better, 0.25 is what a coin flip scores.

Overall (n=93, Brier=0.233)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
20-30%	3	25.2%	33.3%	-8.1pp
30-40%	11	35.0%	9.1%	+25.9pp
40-50%	14	43.6%	28.6%	+15.0pp
50-60%	3	55.7%	33.3%	+22.4pp
60-70%	6	65.0%	33.3%	+31.7pp
70-80%	14	76.0%	50.0%	+26.0pp
80-90%	10	85.2%	70.0%	+15.2pp
90-100%	32	98.6%	78.1%	+20.4pp

live (n=8, Brier=0.000)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
90-100%	8	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0pp

rain (n=5, Brier=0.054)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
30-40%	1	35.0%	0.0%	+35.0pp
70-80%	2	75.5%	100.0%	-24.5pp
80-90%	1	84.0%	100.0%	-16.0pp
90-100%	1	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0pp

weather (n=80, Brier=0.268)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
20-30%	3	25.2%	33.3%	-8.1pp
30-40%	10	35.0%	10.0%	+25.0pp
40-50%	14	43.6%	28.6%	+15.0pp
50-60%	3	55.7%	33.3%	+22.4pp
60-70%	6	65.0%	33.3%	+31.7pp
70-80%	12	76.1%	41.7%	+34.5pp
80-90%	9	85.4%	66.7%	+18.7pp
90-100%	23	98.0%	69.6%	+28.4pp

Weather by city

City	N	Gap	Brier
OKC	1	+75.6pp	0.572
DC	1	+68.3pp	0.466
Miami	7	+66.9pp	0.640
Philly	2	+57.9pp	0.367
SanAntonio	1	-57.3pp	0.329
Chicago	7	+48.8pp	0.331
Vegas	2	-47.0pp	0.227
Minneapolis	3	+37.0pp	0.304
Houston	4	+36.0pp	0.575
Phoenix	1	+35.4pp	0.125
Dallas	7	+34.7pp	0.282
Seattle	3	+27.6pp	0.115
Atlanta	6	+27.4pp	0.122
LA	7	+25.6pp	0.271
Denver	5	+24.9pp	0.381
Austin	6	-7.9pp	0.162
Boston	1	-6.1pp	0.004
SanDiego	3	-3.3pp	0.003
Newark	2	-3.0pp	0.002
NYC	6	-1.0pp	0.111
SF	4	+0.3pp	0.052
Trenton	1	+0.0pp	0.000

Cheap YES (<15¢) — isolated (n=19, Brier=0.297)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
20-30%	3	25.2%	33.3%	-8.1pp
30-40%	5	34.1%	20.0%	+14.1pp
40-50%	7	43.7%	28.6%	+15.2pp
60-70%	1	63.4%	0.0%	+63.4pp
70-80%	2	73.8%	0.0%	+73.8pp
90-100%	1	100.0%	0.0%	+100.0pp

Closed tickets (full history)

Date	Stream	City	Label	Side	Mid	Stake	Score	Why
2026-08-31	weather	Houston	90-91	NO	0.599	300.0	$-300	evening max 90 in bucket 90.0-91.0
2026-08-31	weather	Dallas	99-100	YES	0.475	297.04	$328	evening max 100 in bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-31	weather	Philly	<83	NO	0.87	300.0	$-300	evening max 82 < 83.0
2026-08-31	weather	Miami	91-92	NO	0.495	300.0	$-300	evening max 91 in bucket 91.0-92.0
2026-08-31	weather	NYC	80-81	YES	0.2	132.62	$-133	evening max 78 < bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-31	live	Newark	79-80	NO	0.5	300.0	$300	max 81 > bucket 79.0-80.0
2026-08-31	live	NewOrleans	88-89	NO	0.42	300.0	$217	max 90 > bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-31	weather	Austin	97-98	YES	0.10500000000000001	23.5	$-24	max 100 > bucket 97.0-98.0
2026-08-31	weather	LA	76-77	NO	0.165	300.0	$59	max 79 > bucket 76.0-77.0
2026-08-31	weather	Atlanta	90-91	YES	0.07500000000000001	146.84	$-147	max 93 > bucket 90.0-91.0
2026-08-31	weather	Chicago	<89	YES	0.345	300.0	$-300	max 91 >= 89.0
2026-08-30	weather	Vegas	99-100	YES	0.23500000000000001	211.98	$690	evening max 100 in bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-30	weather	Denver	85-86	YES	0.22	89.78	$318	evening max 85 in bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-08-30	weather	Chicago	<86	YES	0.525	300.0	$271	evening max 81 < 86.0
2026-08-30	live	SanDiego	79-80	NO	0.45499999999999996	300.0	$250	max 81 > bucket 79.0-80.0
2026-08-30	live	SF	70-71	NO	0.64	300.0	$533	max 72 > bucket 70.0-71.0
2026-08-30	live	Philly	86-87	NO	0.9299999999999999	300.0	$3,986	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-30	weather	Minneapolis	86-87	NO	0.54	88.02	$103	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-30	weather	Austin	96-97	YES	0.085	210.22	$-210	max 100 > bucket 96.0-97.0
2026-08-30	weather	Dallas	99-100	YES	0.14	300.0	$-300	max 101 > bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-30	weather	NYC	80-81	NO	0.405	300.0	$204	evening max 78 < bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-30	weather	LA	82-83	NO	0.445	109.78	$88	max 84 > bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-08-30	weather	Atlanta	87-88	YES	0.08499999999999999	190.22	$-190	max 91 > bucket 87.0-88.0
2026-08-30	weather	Miami	<87	YES	0.07	300.0	$-300	max 90 >= 87.0
2026-08-29	weather	SanDiego	89-90	NO	0.43000000000000005	300.0	$226	evening max 88 < bucket 89.0-90.0
2026-08-29	weather	Houston	96-97	YES	0.095	143.61	$1,368	evening max 97 in bucket 96.0-97.0
2026-08-29	weather	Denver	90-91	NO	0.47	300.0	$-300	evening max 91 in bucket 90.0-91.0
2026-08-29	live	Trenton	<79	NO	0.455	300.0	$250	max 79 >= 79.0
2026-08-29	live	Atlanta	88-89	NO	0.64	300.0	$533	max 90 > bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-29	weather	Newark	>87	NO	0.495	22.67	$22	evening max 81 <= 87.0
2026-08-29	weather	SF	70-71	NO	0.915	300.0	$3,229	max 72 > bucket 70.0-71.0
2026-08-29	weather	Miami	92-93	NO	0.515	300.0	$319	evening max 86 < bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-29	weather	NYC	81-82	YES	0.065	133.72	$-134	evening max 75 < bucket 81.0-82.0
2026-08-29	weather	LA	84-85	NO	0.485	283.98	$267	max 86 > bucket 84.0-85.0
2026-08-29	weather	Atlanta	86-87	YES	0.275	182.3	$-182	max 90 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-29	weather	Dallas	100-101	YES	0.345	300.0	$-300	max 103 > bucket 100.0-101.0
2026-08-29	weather	Chicago	<80	YES	0.07500000000000001	300.0	$-300	max 81 >= 80.0
2026-08-28	weather	SF	66-67	NO	0.49	33.49	$32	evening max 65 < bucket 66.0-67.0
2026-08-28	weather	Seattle	74-75	NO	0.125	266.51	$38	evening max 72 < bucket 74.0-75.0
2026-08-28	weather	Minneapolis	82-83	NO	0.8049999999999999	300.0	$-300	evening max 82 in bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-08-28	weather	Austin	103-104	NO	0.175	300.0	$64	evening max 102 < bucket 103.0-104.0
2026-08-28	weather	LA	86-87	NO	0.345	300.0	$-300	evening max 86 in bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-28	weather	Miami	92-93	NO	0.635	300.0	$-300	evening max 93 in bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-28	live	SanAntonio	97-98	NO	0.14500000000000002	300.0	$51	max 99 > bucket 97.0-98.0
2026-08-28	weather	Denver	92-93	YES	0.24	33.49	$-33	max 94 > bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-28	weather	Dallas	98-99	YES	0.08	279.62	$-280	max 102 > bucket 98.0-99.0
2026-08-28	weather	NYC	80-81	NO	0.395	286.89	$187	max 82 > bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-28	weather	Chicago	80-81	YES	0.125	279.62	$-280	max 82 > bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-27	weather	Austin	104-105	YES	0.11	164.02	$1,327	evening max 104 in bucket 104.0-105.0
2026-08-27	weather	LA	86-87	NO	0.505	300.0	$306	max 90 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-27	weather	Atlanta	88-89	NO	0.365	300.0	$172	max 90 > bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-27	weather	Dallas	98-99	NO	0.425	300.0	$222	max 101 > bucket 98.0-99.0
2026-08-27	weather	Chicago	82-83	YES	0.285	135.98	$-136	evening max 81 < bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-08-27	weather	Miami	91-92	NO	0.505	300.0	$306	max 93 > bucket 91.0-92.0
2026-08-26	weather	SanAntonio	<101	YES	0.075	300.0	$3,700	evening max 100 < 101.0
2026-08-26	weather	OKC	92-93	NO	0.51	300.0	$-300	evening max 93 in bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-26	weather	SF	>79	YES	0.065	300.0	$-300	evening max 77 <= 79.0
2026-08-26	weather	Seattle	78-79	YES	0.17	300.0	$-300	evening max 77 < bucket 78.0-79.0
2026-08-26	weather	Vegas	109-110	YES	0.47	300.0	$338	evening max 109 in bucket 109.0-110.0
2026-08-26	weather	Houston	100-101	YES	0.285	37.39	$-37	evening max 99 < bucket 100.0-101.0
2026-08-26	weather	Denver	>87	NO	0.445	300.0	$241	evening max 86 <= 87.0
2026-08-26	weather	Austin	105-106	NO	0.36	300.0	$169	evening max 102 < bucket 105.0-106.0
2026-08-26	weather	Dallas	100-101	NO	0.325	300.0	$-300	evening max 100 in bucket 100.0-101.0
2026-08-26	rain	Miami	Miami	NO	0.655	149.86	$285	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-26	rain	NewOrleans	NewOrleans	YES	0.21999999999999997	208.33	$-208	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-26	weather	Trenton	>89	NO	0.49	300.0	$288	evening max 82 <= 89.0
2026-08-26	weather	Phoenix	115-116	YES	0.265	150.78	$-151	max 117 > bucket 115.0-116.0
2026-08-26	weather	Newark	>88	NO	0.49	253.64	$244	evening max 84 <= 88.0
2026-08-26	weather	SanDiego	<86	NO	0.47500000000000003	300.0	$271	max 90 >= 86.0
2026-08-26	weather	DC	85-86	NO	0.505	300.0	$-300	evening max 86 in bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-08-26	weather	LA	86-87	NO	0.555	300.0	$374	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-26	weather	Miami	91-92	NO	0.5	300.0	$-300	evening max 92 in bucket 91.0-92.0
2026-08-26	weather	Philly	83-84	YES	0.165	300.0	$-300	max 86 > bucket 83.0-84.0
2026-08-26	weather	Atlanta	89-90	YES	0.195	246.36	$-246	max 91 > bucket 89.0-90.0
2026-08-26	weather	Chicago	81-82	YES	0.12000000000000001	300.0	$-300	max 84 > bucket 81.0-82.0
2026-08-26	weather	NYC	<80	YES	0.12	262.61	$-263	max 80 >= 80.0
2026-08-26	weather	Boston	<79	NO	0.63	300.0	$511	max 79 >= 79.0
2026-08-25	weather	SanDiego	88-89	NO	0.495	221.29	$217	evening max 85 < bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-25	weather	Seattle	86-87	YES	0.15	300.0	$-300	evening max 84 < bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-25	weather	Minneapolis	<83	NO	0.76	300.0	$-300	evening max 81 < 83.0
2026-08-25	weather	Houston	99-100	NO	0.5800000000000001	300.0	$-300	evening max 99 in bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-25	weather	Denver	84-85	NO	0.565	278.71	$-279	evening max 84 in bucket 84.0-85.0
2026-08-25	weather	Austin	101-102	YES	0.35	300.0	$557	evening max 102 in bucket 101.0-102.0
2026-08-25	weather	LA	>88	YES	0.06499999999999997	300.0	$-300	evening max 84 <= 88.0
2026-08-25	weather	Dallas	106-107	YES	0.07	300.0	$-300	evening max 100 < bucket 106.0-107.0
2026-08-25	weather	Chicago	80-81	NO	0.705	300.0	$-300	evening max 81 in bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-25	weather	SF	66-67	NO	0.535	300.0	$345	max 68 > bucket 66.0-67.0
2026-08-25	rain	Chicago	Chicago	NO	0.1	300.0	$33	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-25	rain	Dallas	Dallas	NO	0.33499999999999996	300.0	$151	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-25	rain	Miami	Miami	NO	0.695	300.0	$684	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-25	weather	Atlanta	94-95	YES	0.225	300.0	$-300	evening max 93 < bucket 94.0-95.0
2026-08-25	weather	Miami	92-93	NO	0.575	300.0	$-300	evening max 92 in bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-25	weather	NYC	76-77	YES	0.115	300.0	$2,309	evening max 77 in bucket 76.0-77.0

This pass

City	Label	Side	Won	High	Score	Reason
None

Open paper

Stream	City / market	Side	Mid	Model	Stake
gdp	Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?	YES	0.245	0.75	300.0
cpi	Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?	NO	0.91	0.25	300
claims	How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Aug 29, 2026?	YES	0.56	1.0	300.0
weather	Will the maximum temperature be >100° on Aug 31, 2026?	NO	0.51		170.34
weather	Will the maximum temperature be <83° on Sep 1, 2026?	NO	0.645	0.3537	300.0
weather	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 1?	NO	0.555		300.0
weather	Will the maximum temperature be 89-90° on Sep 1, 2026?	YES	0.155	0.4756	284.56
weather	Will the maximum temperature be <98° on Sep 1, 2026?	YES	0.095	0.7927	300.0
weather	Will the maximum temperature be 93-94° on Sep 1, 2026?	YES	0.125	0.4878	300.0
weather	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 1?	NO	0.545	0.0488	15.44

Already in (obs vs book)

City	Label	Side	Mid	Max	Edge	Reason
None

Claims (obs vs book)

Label	Side	Mid	Claims	Edge
None

Rain

City	Ticker	Title	Mid	NWS PoP	Edge	Side
Trenton	KXRAIN-26SEP01-TTN	Will it rain in Trenton on Sep 1, 2026?	0.735	0.35	-0.385	NO
SF	KXRAIN-26SEP01-SFO	Will it rain in San Francisco on Sep 1, 2026?	0.08499999999999999	0.03
Seattle	KXRAIN-26SEP01-SEA	Will it rain in Seattle on Sep 1, 2026?	0.03500000000000002	0.08
SanAntonio	KXRAIN-26SEP01-SATX	Will it rain in San Antonio on Sep 1, 2026?	0.06999999999999998	0.11
Phoenix	KXRAIN-26SEP01-PHX	Will it rain in Phoenix on Sep 1, 2026?	0.115	0.03
Philly	KXRAIN-26SEP01-PHIL	Will it rain in Philadelphia on Sep 1, 2026?	0.7	0.3	-0.4	NO
OKC	KXRAIN-26SEP01-OKC	Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Sep 1, 2026?	0.01500000000000001	0.0
NYC	KXRAIN-26SEP01-NYC	Will it rain in New York City on Sep 1, 2026?	0.9099999999999999	0.74	-0.17	NO
NewOrleans	KXRAIN-26SEP01-NOLA	Will it rain in New Orleans on Sep 1, 2026?	0.72	0.51	-0.21	NO
Minneapolis	KXRAIN-26SEP01-MIN	Will it rain in Minneapolis on Sep 1, 2026?	0.115	1.0	0.885	YES
Miami	KXRAIN-26SEP01-MIA	Will it rain in Miami on Sep 1, 2026?	0.775	0.71
Vegas	KXRAIN-26SEP01-LV	Will it rain in Las Vegas on Sep 1, 2026?	0.025000000000000015	1.0
LA	KXRAIN-26SEP01-LAX	Will it rain in Los Angeles on Sep 1, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	1.0
Houston	KXRAIN-26SEP01-HOU	Will it rain in Houston on Sep 1, 2026?	0.925	0.71	-0.215	NO
Newark	KXRAIN-26SEP01-EWR	Will it rain in Newark on Sep 1, 2026?	0.865	0.75
Denver	KXRAIN-26SEP01-DEN	Will it rain in Denver on Sep 1, 2026?	0.27	0.11	-0.16	NO
DC	KXRAIN-26SEP01-DC	Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 1, 2026?	0.28	0.15	-0.13	NO
Dallas	KXRAIN-26SEP01-DAL	Will it rain in Dallas on Sep 1, 2026?	0.06999999999999998	0.11
Chicago	KXRAIN-26SEP01-CHI	Will it rain in Chicago on Sep 1, 2026?	0.32999999999999996	0.15	-0.18	NO
Boston	KXRAIN-26SEP01-BOS	Will it rain in Boston on Sep 1, 2026?	0.895	0.78
Austin	KXRAIN-26SEP01-AUS	Will it rain in Austin on Sep 1, 2026?	0.135	0.14
Atlanta	KXRAIN-26SEP01-ATL	Will it rain in Atlanta on Sep 1, 2026?	0.03000000000000002	0.02

GDP nowcast

Ticker	Title	Mid	Nowcast	Edge	Side
KXGDP-26OCT30-T4.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?	0.13	4.6	0.62	YES
KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?	0.24500000000000002	4.6	0.505	YES
KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?	0.36	4.6	0.39	YES
KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?	0.965	4.6	-0.215
KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?	0.87	4.6	-0.12	NO
KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?	0.475	4.6	0.275	YES
KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?	0.7050000000000001	4.6	0.045
KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?	0.735	4.6	0.015
KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?	0.8300000000000001	4.6	-0.08	NO

CPI nowcast

Ticker	Title	Mid	Nowcast	Edge	Side
KXCPI-26AUG-T1.0	Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in August 2026?	0.030000000000000027	0.36	0.22
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.9	Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in August 2026?	0.020000000000000018	0.36	0.23
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.8	Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in August 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.36	0.24
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.7	Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in August 2026?	0.040000000000000036	0.36	0.21
KXCPI-26AUG-T0.6	Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in August 2026?	0.040000000000000036	0.36	0.21
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6	Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?	0.27499999999999997	0.36	-0.025
KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.4	Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?	0.975	0.36
KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.3	Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in September 2026?	0.95	0.36
KXCPI-26SEP-T-0.2	Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in September 2026?	0.9099999999999999	0.36
KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.4	Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026?	0.83	0.36
KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.3	Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in August 2026?	0.83	0.36
KXCPI-26AUG-T-0.2	Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in August 2026?	0.96	0.36
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5	Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?	0.42000000000000004	0.36	-0.17	NO
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.4	Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026?	0.48	0.36	-0.23	NO
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.3	Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026?	0.43	0.36	0.32	YES
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.2	Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?	0.615	0.36	0.135	YES
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.1	Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026?	0.7649999999999999	0.36	-0.015
KXCPI-26NOV-T-0.1	Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?	0.75	0.36
KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0	Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?	0.8	0.36	-0.05
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.5	Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?	0.38	0.36	-0.13	NO

Ladder breaks

Ladder	Check	Detail	Edge
KXHIGHNY-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.480	-0.52
KXHIGHCHI-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.720	-0.28
KXHIGHLAX-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.755	-0.245
KXHIGHTHOU-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.375	-0.625
KXHIGHTHOU-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.020	-0.98
KXHIGHPHIL-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.020	-0.98
KXHIGHTBOS-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.835	-0.165
KXHIGHTBOS-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.020	-0.98
KXHIGHTDC-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.020	-0.98
KXHIGHTPHX-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.020	-0.98
KXHIGHTMIN-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.020	-0.98
KXHIGHTSAN-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 1.730	0.73
KXHIGHTSATX-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.880	-0.12
KXHIGHTEWR-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 1.935	0.935
KXHIGHTTTN-26SEP01	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 1.925	0.925
KXHIGHTTTN-26AUG31	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.060	-0.94

Resolution notes

Pair	Risk	Kalshi rule	Poly rule
NYC daily high	Different thermometer. Houston-style trap: Hobby vs Bush.	Kalshi KXHIGHNY settles on the official high at a named NWS station (check the event page)	Polymarket highest-temperature-in-nyc uses a site= station in the market metadata. Confirm
Miami daily high	Airport vs city blend. Grid models under-read KMIA spikes.	KXHIGHMIA named station on the event.	highest-temperature-in-miami site= in Gamma.
CPI print	Twin markets that are not twins. Both legs can lose.	Usually seasonally adjusted CPI-U, one-decimal MoM or a specified YoY series. Last trade ~	Read the exact series (headline vs core, MoM vs YoY) and rounding.
Daily rain	Measurable precip vs any rain. Trace drizzle can feel wet and still settle No. Station mismatch (Midway vs O'Hare, DFW vs Love).	KXRAIN settles Yes only if The Weather Company station total is strictly > 0.00 in. Trace	If a city rain book exists, confirm the same station and whether trace counts. NWS forecas
Quarterly GDP	Nowcast can miss the BEA print by ~1pp. Do not treat GDPNow as settlement.	KXGDP is BEA real GDP SAAR advance estimate, one decimal, strictly greater than the strike	Confirm vintage (advance vs second/third) and the exact quarter.

Errors

None