Paper

As of 2026-10-07 12:15 PM ET · every stream, every scan pass

Plain-English P&L summary is in account.html. This page is the engine room.

Equity

$24,435

Closed score

+$19,435

Open stake

$1,200

If open settled at cost

$23,235

Calibration (predicted p vs actual, closed tickets)

Rows dimmed below n=5 are not enough tickets to trust. Gap = mean predicted probability of our side minus actual win rate; positive means we're overconfident, negative means underconfident. Brier score: lower is better, 0.25 is what a coin flip scores.

Overall (n=116, Brier=0.267)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
20-30%	3	25.2%	33.3%	-8.1pp
30-40%	11	35.0%	9.1%	+25.9pp
40-50%	17	43.5%	23.5%	+19.9pp
50-60%	5	55.9%	40.0%	+15.9pp
60-70%	11	65.7%	18.2%	+47.6pp
70-80%	17	76.0%	52.9%	+23.1pp
80-90%	12	84.8%	66.7%	+18.2pp
90-100%	40	98.1%	70.0%	+28.1pp

live (n=9, Brier=0.000)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
90-100%	9	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0pp

rain (n=5, Brier=0.054)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
30-40%	1	35.0%	0.0%	+35.0pp
70-80%	2	75.5%	100.0%	-24.5pp
80-90%	1	84.0%	100.0%	-16.0pp
90-100%	1	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0pp

weather (n=102, Brier=0.301)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
20-30%	3	25.2%	33.3%	-8.1pp
30-40%	10	35.0%	10.0%	+25.0pp
40-50%	17	43.5%	23.5%	+19.9pp
50-60%	5	55.9%	40.0%	+15.9pp
60-70%	11	65.7%	18.2%	+47.6pp
70-80%	15	76.1%	46.7%	+29.4pp
80-90%	11	84.9%	63.6%	+21.3pp
90-100%	30	97.5%	60.0%	+37.5pp

Weather by city

City	N	Gap	Brier
OKC	1	+75.6pp	0.572
Philly	2	+70.1pp	0.581
DC	1	+68.3pp	0.466
Miami	9	+63.3pp	0.557
SanAntonio	1	-57.3pp	0.329
Dallas	9	+51.5pp	0.342
Vegas	2	-47.0pp	0.227
Houston	5	+46.3pp	0.618
Chicago	9	+44.9pp	0.312
Phoenix	3	+44.7pp	0.367
LA	8	+44.4pp	0.430
Minneapolis	5	+36.1pp	0.359
Denver	7	+30.5pp	0.329
Seattle	4	+20.7pp	0.087
SanDiego	4	+16.5pp	0.145
Atlanta	8	+11.9pp	0.123
Boston	1	-6.1pp	0.004
NYC	8	+3.7pp	0.152
Newark	2	-3.0pp	0.002
Austin	8	+2.7pp	0.212
SF	4	+0.3pp	0.052
Trenton	1	+0.0pp	0.000

Cheap YES (<15¢) — isolated (n=23, Brier=0.290)

Predicted p	N	Mean predicted	Actual win rate	Gap
20-30%	3	25.2%	33.3%	-8.1pp
30-40%	5	34.1%	20.0%	+14.1pp
40-50%	10	43.5%	20.0%	+23.5pp
60-70%	2	66.5%	0.0%	+66.5pp
70-80%	2	73.8%	0.0%	+73.8pp
90-100%	1	100.0%	0.0%	+100.0pp

Closed tickets (full history)

Date	Stream	City	Label	Side	Mid	Stake	Score	Why
2026-10-02	weather	LA	85-86	NO	0.325	100.0	$-100	evening max 86 in bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-10-02	weather	Houston	91-92	NO	0.625	300.0	$-300	evening max 91 in bucket 91.0-92.0
2026-10-02	weather	Austin	78-79	NO	0.395	300.0	$-300	evening max 79 in bucket 78.0-79.0
2026-10-02	weather	Philly	88-89	NO	0.155	260.2	$-260	evening max 88 in bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-10-02	weather	Atlanta	<86	YES	0.29500000000000004	239.8	$573	evening max 84 < 86.0
2026-10-02	weather	NYC	81-82	YES	0.175	300.0	$1,414	evening max 82 in bucket 81.0-82.0
2026-08-31	weather	Austin	97-98	YES	0.10500000000000001	23.5	$-24	kalshi result no (nws observations gone)
2026-08-31	weather	LA	76-77	NO	0.165	300.0	$0	archived: nws window expired, no kalshi ticker
2026-08-31	weather	Atlanta	90-91	YES	0.07500000000000001	146.84	$-147	kalshi result no (nws observations gone)
2026-08-31	weather	Dallas	99-100	YES	0.475	297.04	$-297	kalshi result no (nws observations gone)
2026-08-31	weather	Chicago	<89	YES	0.345	300.0	$-300	kalshi result no (nws observations gone)
2026-08-31	weather	Miami	91-92	NO	0.495	300.0	$-300	kalshi result yes (nws observations gone)
2026-08-31	weather	NYC	80-81	YES	0.2	132.62	$-133	kalshi result no (nws observations gone)
2026-10-02	live	Philly	86-87	NO	0.5800000000000001	300.0	$414	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-10-02	weather	Denver	79-80	YES	0.055	260.2	$-260	max 81 > bucket 79.0-80.0
2026-10-02	live	Dallas	77-78	NO	0.29500000000000004	300.0	$126	max 79 > bucket 77.0-78.0
2026-10-02	weather	Dallas	<77	YES	0.155	300.0	$-300	max 77 >= 77.0
2026-10-02	weather	Miami	85-86	YES	0.08499999999999999	260.2	$-260	max 88 > bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-10-02	live	OKC	68-69	NO	0.265	300.0	$108	max 70 > bucket 68.0-69.0
2026-10-02	weather	Chicago	61-62	YES	0.065	300.0	$-300	max 63 > bucket 61.0-62.0
2026-10-01	weather	SanDiego	<80	NO	0.715	42.5	$-42	evening max 79 < 80.0
2026-10-01	weather	LA	76-77	NO	0.32	300.0	$-300	evening max 76 in bucket 76.0-77.0
2026-10-01	weather	Minneapolis	67-68	NO	0.8400000000000001	257.5	$1,352	evening max 66 < bucket 67.0-68.0
2026-10-01	weather	Chicago	75-76	NO	0.195	300.0	$73	evening max 72 < bucket 75.0-76.0
2026-10-01	weather	Miami	83-84	NO	0.855	300.0	$-300	evening max 83 in bucket 83.0-84.0
2026-10-01	weather	Atlanta	85-86	YES	0.235	300.0	$977	evening max 86 in bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-10-01	weather	Phoenix	>92	NO	0.92	42.5	$-42	max 93 > 92.0
2026-10-01	weather	Denver	68-69	YES	0.09	257.5	$-258	max 70 > bucket 68.0-69.0
2026-10-01	weather	Houston	<90	YES	0.25	300.0	$-300	max 91 >= 90.0
2026-10-01	weather	NYC	<75	YES	0.28500000000000003	300.0	$-300	max 75 >= 75.0
2026-10-01	weather	Austin	82-83	NO	0.355	300.0	$165	max 84 > bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-10-01	weather	Dallas	<81	YES	0.425	300.0	$-300	max 81 >= 81.0
2026-09-30	weather	Seattle	65-66	NO	0.645	300.0	$545	evening max 64 < bucket 65.0-66.0
2026-09-30	weather	Phoenix	85-86	NO	0.905	300.0	$2,858	evening max 84 < bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-09-30	weather	Minneapolis	72-73	NO	0.845	300.0	$-300	evening max 72 in bucket 72.0-73.0
2026-08-30	weather	Vegas	99-100	YES	0.23500000000000001	211.98	$690	evening max 100 in bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-30	weather	Denver	85-86	YES	0.22	89.78	$318	evening max 85 in bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-08-30	weather	Chicago	<86	YES	0.525	300.0	$271	evening max 81 < 86.0
2026-08-30	live	SanDiego	79-80	NO	0.45499999999999996	300.0	$250	max 81 > bucket 79.0-80.0
2026-08-30	live	SF	70-71	NO	0.64	300.0	$533	max 72 > bucket 70.0-71.0
2026-08-30	live	Philly	86-87	NO	0.9299999999999999	300.0	$3,986	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-30	weather	Minneapolis	86-87	NO	0.54	88.02	$103	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-30	weather	Austin	96-97	YES	0.085	210.22	$-210	max 100 > bucket 96.0-97.0
2026-08-30	weather	Dallas	99-100	YES	0.14	300.0	$-300	max 101 > bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-30	weather	NYC	80-81	NO	0.405	300.0	$204	evening max 78 < bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-30	weather	LA	82-83	NO	0.445	109.78	$88	max 84 > bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-08-30	weather	Atlanta	87-88	YES	0.08499999999999999	190.22	$-190	max 91 > bucket 87.0-88.0
2026-08-30	weather	Miami	<87	YES	0.07	300.0	$-300	max 90 >= 87.0
2026-08-29	weather	SanDiego	89-90	NO	0.43000000000000005	300.0	$226	evening max 88 < bucket 89.0-90.0
2026-08-29	weather	Houston	96-97	YES	0.095	143.61	$1,368	evening max 97 in bucket 96.0-97.0
2026-08-29	weather	Denver	90-91	NO	0.47	300.0	$-300	evening max 91 in bucket 90.0-91.0
2026-08-29	live	Trenton	<79	NO	0.455	300.0	$250	max 79 >= 79.0
2026-08-29	live	Atlanta	88-89	NO	0.64	300.0	$533	max 90 > bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-29	weather	Newark	>87	NO	0.495	22.67	$22	evening max 81 <= 87.0
2026-08-29	weather	SF	70-71	NO	0.915	300.0	$3,229	max 72 > bucket 70.0-71.0
2026-08-29	weather	Miami	92-93	NO	0.515	300.0	$319	evening max 86 < bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-29	weather	NYC	81-82	YES	0.065	133.72	$-134	evening max 75 < bucket 81.0-82.0
2026-08-29	weather	LA	84-85	NO	0.485	283.98	$267	max 86 > bucket 84.0-85.0
2026-08-29	weather	Atlanta	86-87	YES	0.275	182.3	$-182	max 90 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-29	weather	Dallas	100-101	YES	0.345	300.0	$-300	max 103 > bucket 100.0-101.0
2026-08-29	weather	Chicago	<80	YES	0.07500000000000001	300.0	$-300	max 81 >= 80.0
2026-08-28	weather	SF	66-67	NO	0.49	33.49	$32	evening max 65 < bucket 66.0-67.0
2026-08-28	weather	Seattle	74-75	NO	0.125	266.51	$38	evening max 72 < bucket 74.0-75.0
2026-08-28	weather	Minneapolis	82-83	NO	0.8049999999999999	300.0	$-300	evening max 82 in bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-08-28	weather	Austin	103-104	NO	0.175	300.0	$64	evening max 102 < bucket 103.0-104.0
2026-08-28	weather	LA	86-87	NO	0.345	300.0	$-300	evening max 86 in bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-28	weather	Miami	92-93	NO	0.635	300.0	$-300	evening max 93 in bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-28	live	SanAntonio	97-98	NO	0.14500000000000002	300.0	$51	max 99 > bucket 97.0-98.0
2026-08-28	weather	Denver	92-93	YES	0.24	33.49	$-33	max 94 > bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-28	weather	Dallas	98-99	YES	0.08	279.62	$-280	max 102 > bucket 98.0-99.0
2026-08-28	weather	NYC	80-81	NO	0.395	286.89	$187	max 82 > bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-28	weather	Chicago	80-81	YES	0.125	279.62	$-280	max 82 > bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-27	weather	Austin	104-105	YES	0.11	164.02	$1,327	evening max 104 in bucket 104.0-105.0
2026-08-27	weather	LA	86-87	NO	0.505	300.0	$306	max 90 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-27	weather	Atlanta	88-89	NO	0.365	300.0	$172	max 90 > bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-27	weather	Dallas	98-99	NO	0.425	300.0	$222	max 101 > bucket 98.0-99.0
2026-08-27	weather	Chicago	82-83	YES	0.285	135.98	$-136	evening max 81 < bucket 82.0-83.0
2026-08-27	weather	Miami	91-92	NO	0.505	300.0	$306	max 93 > bucket 91.0-92.0
2026-08-26	weather	SanAntonio	<101	YES	0.075	300.0	$3,700	evening max 100 < 101.0
2026-08-26	weather	OKC	92-93	NO	0.51	300.0	$-300	evening max 93 in bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-26	weather	SF	>79	YES	0.065	300.0	$-300	evening max 77 <= 79.0
2026-08-26	weather	Seattle	78-79	YES	0.17	300.0	$-300	evening max 77 < bucket 78.0-79.0
2026-08-26	weather	Vegas	109-110	YES	0.47	300.0	$338	evening max 109 in bucket 109.0-110.0
2026-08-26	weather	Houston	100-101	YES	0.285	37.39	$-37	evening max 99 < bucket 100.0-101.0
2026-08-26	weather	Denver	>87	NO	0.445	300.0	$241	evening max 86 <= 87.0
2026-08-26	weather	Austin	105-106	NO	0.36	300.0	$169	evening max 102 < bucket 105.0-106.0
2026-08-26	weather	Dallas	100-101	NO	0.325	300.0	$-300	evening max 100 in bucket 100.0-101.0
2026-08-26	rain	Miami	Miami	NO	0.655	149.86	$285	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-26	rain	NewOrleans	NewOrleans	YES	0.21999999999999997	208.33	$-208	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-26	weather	Trenton	>89	NO	0.49	300.0	$288	evening max 82 <= 89.0
2026-08-26	weather	Phoenix	115-116	YES	0.265	150.78	$-151	max 117 > bucket 115.0-116.0
2026-08-26	weather	Newark	>88	NO	0.49	253.64	$244	evening max 84 <= 88.0
2026-08-26	weather	SanDiego	<86	NO	0.47500000000000003	300.0	$271	max 90 >= 86.0
2026-08-26	weather	DC	85-86	NO	0.505	300.0	$-300	evening max 86 in bucket 85.0-86.0
2026-08-26	weather	LA	86-87	NO	0.555	300.0	$374	max 88 > bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-26	weather	Miami	91-92	NO	0.5	300.0	$-300	evening max 92 in bucket 91.0-92.0
2026-08-26	weather	Philly	83-84	YES	0.165	300.0	$-300	max 86 > bucket 83.0-84.0
2026-08-26	weather	Atlanta	89-90	YES	0.195	246.36	$-246	max 91 > bucket 89.0-90.0
2026-08-26	weather	Chicago	81-82	YES	0.12000000000000001	300.0	$-300	max 84 > bucket 81.0-82.0
2026-08-26	weather	NYC	<80	YES	0.12	262.61	$-263	max 80 >= 80.0
2026-08-26	weather	Boston	<79	NO	0.63	300.0	$511	max 79 >= 79.0
2026-08-25	weather	SanDiego	88-89	NO	0.495	221.29	$217	evening max 85 < bucket 88.0-89.0
2026-08-25	weather	Seattle	86-87	YES	0.15	300.0	$-300	evening max 84 < bucket 86.0-87.0
2026-08-25	weather	Minneapolis	<83	NO	0.76	300.0	$-300	evening max 81 < 83.0
2026-08-25	weather	Houston	99-100	NO	0.5800000000000001	300.0	$-300	evening max 99 in bucket 99.0-100.0
2026-08-25	weather	Denver	84-85	NO	0.565	278.71	$-279	evening max 84 in bucket 84.0-85.0
2026-08-25	weather	Austin	101-102	YES	0.35	300.0	$557	evening max 102 in bucket 101.0-102.0
2026-08-25	weather	LA	>88	YES	0.06499999999999997	300.0	$-300	evening max 84 <= 88.0
2026-08-25	weather	Dallas	106-107	YES	0.07	300.0	$-300	evening max 100 < bucket 106.0-107.0
2026-08-25	weather	Chicago	80-81	NO	0.705	300.0	$-300	evening max 81 in bucket 80.0-81.0
2026-08-25	weather	SF	66-67	NO	0.535	300.0	$345	max 68 > bucket 66.0-67.0
2026-08-25	rain	Chicago	Chicago	NO	0.1	300.0	$33	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-25	rain	Dallas	Dallas	NO	0.33499999999999996	300.0	$151	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-25	rain	Miami	Miami	NO	0.695	300.0	$684	evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable)
2026-08-25	weather	Atlanta	94-95	YES	0.225	300.0	$-300	evening max 93 < bucket 94.0-95.0
2026-08-25	weather	Miami	92-93	NO	0.575	300.0	$-300	evening max 92 in bucket 92.0-93.0
2026-08-25	weather	NYC	76-77	YES	0.115	300.0	$2,309	evening max 77 in bucket 76.0-77.0

This pass

City	Label	Side	Won	Obs	Score	Reason
None

Open paper

Stream	City / market	Side	Mid	Model	Stake
gdp	Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?	YES	0.245	0.75	300.0
cpi	Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?	NO	0.91	0.25	300
claims	How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Aug 29, 2026?	YES	0.56	1.0	300.0
claims	How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Oct 3, 2026?	YES	0.495	1.0	300.0

Already in (obs vs book)

City	Ticker	Label	Side	Mid	Max	Edge	Poly lock	Poly lean	Conv	Poly vol	Gate	Reason
None

Daily low lag (obs vs book)

City	Label	Side	Mid	Min	Edge	Reason
None

Claims (obs vs book)

Label	Side	Mid	Claims	Edge
None

Rain

City	Ticker	Title	Mid	NWS PoP	Edge	Side
Trenton	KXRAIN-26OCT07-TTN	Will it rain in Trenton on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
SF	KXRAIN-26OCT07-SFO	Will it rain in San Francisco on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Seattle	KXRAIN-26OCT07-SEA	Will it rain in Seattle on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	1.0
SanAntonio	KXRAIN-26OCT07-SATX	Will it rain in San Antonio on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Phoenix	KXRAIN-26OCT07-PHX	Will it rain in Phoenix on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	1.0
Philly	KXRAIN-26OCT07-PHIL	Will it rain in Philadelphia on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
OKC	KXRAIN-26OCT07-OKC	Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
NYC	KXRAIN-26OCT07-NYC	Will it rain in New York City on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
NewOrleans	KXRAIN-26OCT07-NOLA	Will it rain in New Orleans on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	1.0
Minneapolis	KXRAIN-26OCT07-MIN	Will it rain in Minneapolis on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Miami	KXRAIN-26OCT07-MIA	Will it rain in Miami on Oct 7, 2026?	0.8150000000000001	0.57	-0.245	NO
Vegas	KXRAIN-26OCT07-LV	Will it rain in Las Vegas on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	1.0
LA	KXRAIN-26OCT07-LAX	Will it rain in Los Angeles on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	1.0
Houston	KXRAIN-26OCT07-HOU	Will it rain in Houston on Oct 7, 2026?	0.03000000000000002	0.14
Newark	KXRAIN-26OCT07-EWR	Will it rain in Newark on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Denver	KXRAIN-26OCT07-DEN	Will it rain in Denver on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.06
DC	KXRAIN-26OCT07-DC	Will it rain in Washington DC on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Dallas	KXRAIN-26OCT07-DAL	Will it rain in Dallas on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Chicago	KXRAIN-26OCT07-CHI	Will it rain in Chicago on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Boston	KXRAIN-26OCT07-BOS	Will it rain in Boston on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Austin	KXRAIN-26OCT07-AUS	Will it rain in Austin on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0
Atlanta	KXRAIN-26OCT07-ATL	Will it rain in Atlanta on Oct 7, 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.0

GDP nowcast

Ticker	Title	Mid	Nowcast	Edge	Side
KXGDP-26OCT30-T4.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?	0.255	3.7	-0.005
KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?	0.365	3.7	0.385	YES
KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?	0.685	3.7	0.065
KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?	0.99	3.7	-0.24
KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?	0.98	3.7	-0.23
KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?	0.795	3.7	-0.045
KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?	0.915	3.7	-0.165	NO
KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.5	Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?	0.935	3.7	-0.185	NO
KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.0	Will real GDP increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?	0.965	3.7	-0.215

CPI nowcast

Ticker	Title	Mid	Nowcast	Edge	Side
KXCPI-26OCT-T1.0	Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in October 2026?	0.01500000000000001	0.27	0.235
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.9	Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in October 2026?	0.020000000000000014	0.27	0.23
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.8	Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in October 2026?	0.025000000000000015	0.27	0.225
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.7	Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in October 2026?	0.06499999999999997	0.27	0.185
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.6	Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in October 2026?	0.06499999999999997	0.27	0.185
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.9	Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in December 2026?	0.01500000000000001	0.27	0.235
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.8	Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in December 2026?	0.03000000000000002	0.27	0.22
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.7	Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in December 2026?	0.05500000000000003	0.27	0.195
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.6	Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in December 2026?	0.06499999999999997	0.27	0.185
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.5	Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in December 2026?	0.13	0.27	0.12
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.4	Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in December 2026?	0.2	0.27	0.05
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.3	Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in December 2026?	0.315	0.27	-0.065
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.2	Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in December 2026?	0.575	0.27	0.175	YES
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.1	Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in December 2026?	0.7050000000000001	0.27	0.045
KXCPI-26DEC-T-0.1	Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in December 2026?	0.96	0.27
KXCPI-26DEC-T0.0	Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in December 2026?	0.905	0.27	-0.155
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.9	Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in September 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.27	0.24
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.8	Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in September 2026?	0.010000000000000009	0.27	0.24
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.7	Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in September 2026?	0.025000000000000015	0.27	0.225
KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6	Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?	0.17500000000000004	0.27	0.075

Ladder breaks

Ladder	Check	Detail	Edge
KXHIGHNY-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.940	-0.06
KXHIGHNY-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.535	-0.465
KXHIGHTDAL-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.790	-0.21
KXHIGHTDAL-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.630	-0.37
KXHIGHLAX-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.535	-0.465
KXHIGHLAX-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.595	-0.405
KXHIGHAUS-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.845	-0.155
KXHIGHDEN-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.895	-0.105
KXHIGHTHOU-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.875	-0.125
KXHIGHPHIL-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.920	-0.08
KXHIGHTBOS-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.890	-0.11
KXHIGHTDC-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.890	-0.11
KXHIGHTSEA-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.755	-0.245
KXHIGHTSEA-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.635	-0.365
KXHIGHTSFO-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.300	-0.7
KXHIGHTSFO-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.495	-0.505
KXHIGHTSAN-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.220	-0.78
KXHIGHTSAN-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.660	-0.34
KXHIGHTOKC-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.925	-0.075
KXHIGHTOKC-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.945	-0.055
KXHIGHTEWR-26OCT08	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.920	-0.08
KXHIGHTEWR-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.905	-0.095
KXHIGHTTTN-26OCT07	partition_sum	range YES mids sum to 0.700	-0.3

Resolution notes

Pair	Risk	Kalshi rule	Poly rule
NYC daily high	Different thermometer. Houston-style trap: Hobby vs Bush.	Kalshi KXHIGHNY settles on the official high at a named NWS station (check the event page)	Polymarket highest-temperature-in-nyc uses a site= station in the market metadata. Confirm
Miami daily high	Airport vs city blend. Grid models under-read KMIA spikes.	KXHIGHMIA named station on the event.	highest-temperature-in-miami site= in Gamma.
CPI print	Twin markets that are not twins. Both legs can lose.	Usually seasonally adjusted CPI-U, one-decimal MoM or a specified YoY series. Last trade ~	Read the exact series (headline vs core, MoM vs YoY) and rounding.
Daily rain	Measurable precip vs any rain. Trace drizzle can feel wet and still settle No. Station mismatch (Midway vs O'Hare, DFW vs Love).	KXRAIN settles Yes only if The Weather Company station total is strictly > 0.00 in. Trace	If a city rain book exists, confirm the same station and whether trace counts. NWS forecas
Quarterly GDP	Nowcast can miss the BEA print by ~1pp. Do not treat GDPNow as settlement.	KXGDP is BEA real GDP SAAR advance estimate, one decimal, strictly greater than the strike	Confirm vintage (advance vs second/third) and the exact quarter.

Errors

None