Market Maker

Could not fully read the exchange: 404 Client Error: Not Found for url: https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/portfolio/orders/01a06ce4-1ca0-77c7-abb5-4954309f864e {"error":{"code":"not_found","message":"not found"}}; 404 Client Error: Not Found for url: https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/portfolio/orders/01a06ce4-43b0-7922-90de-cd261e95a3b7 {"error":{"code":"not_found","message":"not found"}}; 404 Client Error: Not Found for url: https://external-api.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/portfolio/orders/01a06ce5-8018-738c-b124-ecedcb04264f {"error":{"code":"not_found","message":"not found"}}
Figures below are incomplete. Nothing is filled in from local records.

Capital

Committed $4.21 of a $100.00 cap · 8 resting, 0 filled · cash $406.86

The cap counts filled positions as well as resting orders. It did not until 2026-09-04, so every fill handed the next scan its capacity back and exposure ratcheted — $103.20 against a $100 cap before it was caught.

Fill rate by queue depth

Whether 3c below the favourite is the right offset. A post behind a wall of existing bids is dead capital; MAX_QUEUE_AHEAD is currently 50.0. Unknown means the order could not be read — never counted as a miss.

Resting orders

Priced on the leg we actually pay, not the YES leg Kalshi quotes them at. Reading the raw YES price understates a NO order about 15x.

Filled positions

Every post