| step | state | what it does |
|---|---|---|
live_trading.filter | ARMED | LAG BOOK ENTRY -- already-happened only, 2F / 0.05in |
live_trading.exit | ARMED | LAG BOOK EXIT -- flattens a position whose premise is contradicted |
live_trading.closebook | disarmed | read-only: logs what the near-certain side costs |
live_trading.makerpaper | disarmed | read-only: models where a resting post would sit |
live_trading.maker | ARMED | MARKET MAKER ENTRY -- posts real resting orders |
live_trading.maker_book | on | books filled maker posts into open_live |
live_trading.lip_maker | ARMED | RAIN INCENTIVE -- favourite bid 80-90c, 20 contracts, $200, post-only |
live_trading.mentions_trial | on | (unrecognised step) |
live_trading.rain_recheck | on | (unrecognised step) |
live_trading.forecast_maker | disarmed | (unrecognised step) |
weather.run | disarmed | the scan: fetch observations and forecasts, price every stream |
live_trading.crypto_lag | disarmed | read-only: Coinbase spot vs Kalshi hourly BTC/ETH |
live_trading.lip_shadow | disarmed | (unrecognised step) |
live_trading.venue_lag | disarmed | read-only: Kalshi vs RH vs Coinbase-PM weather |
live_trading.crypto_venue | disarmed | read-only: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Coinbase crypto |
live_trading.settle | on | settles live rows against Kalshi's own result |
live_trading.report | on | builds this page |
live_trading.maker_report | on | builds the Market Maker page |
live_trading.crypto_maker_report | on | (unrecognised step) |
paper_sleeves.scanners.run_batch | disarmed | (unrecognised step) |
live_trading.fleet_report | on | (unrecognised step) |
live_trading.balance_report | on | (unrecognised step) |
enabled.flag is PRESENT — live steps are permitted to act. Deleting this one file stops every live step at once.
| strategy | at risk | limit |
|---|---|---|
| market maker | $4.21 | $100.00 |
| rain incentive | $0.00 | $175.00 |
| lag book (temperature + rain) | $0.00 | $60.00 |
| not KALPOLY (placed by hand) | $75.47 | — |
| free cash | $406.86 | — |
A limit bounds what a strategy may open; it does not bound cumulative losses, and it only counts positions that strategy itself placed.
Cash $406.86 · Open positions $74.58 · Equity $481.44 · Realized $-23.04
Of that, $-25.05 on markets KALPOLY opened and $2.02 on trades placed outside the system, over 200 settled markets.
Committed $4.21 of a $100.00 cap · 8 resting, 0 filled. Resting orders are priced on the leg we actually pay, not on the YES leg Kalshi quotes them at.
| ticker | side | contracts | cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| KXEARNINGSMENTIONBA-26OCT27-F47 | NO | 1 | 0.66 |
| KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT26-ILLE | NO | 1 | 0.43 |
| KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT26-FRAU | NO | 1 | 0.39 |
| KXEARNINGSMENTIONPYPL-26OCT27-CASH | NO | 1 | 0.70 |
| KXEARNINGSMENTIONBA-26OCT27-STAR | NO | 1 | 0.39 |
| KXEARNINGSMENTIONBA-26OCT27-CHIN | NO | 1 | 0.56 |
| KXEARNINGSMENTIONBA-26OCT27-WIDE | NO | 1 | 0.64 |
| KXEARNINGSMENTIONHLT-26OCT27-COMP | NO | 1 | 0.44 |
| ticker | side | contracts | at_risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| None | |||
These tables come from live/ledger.json, whose sizes and P&L are known to disagree with the exchange. Treat them as a record of what the system decided, not of what it made.
| city | date | label | side | size | entry_price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | |||||
| city | date | label | side | size | pnl | won | exit_reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC | 2026-09-01 | <94 | YES | 0.91 | -0.91 | False | |
| Philly | 2026-09-01 | 89-90 | YES | 1.28 | -1.28 | False | |
| Denver | 2026-09-01 | 83-84 | YES | 1.6 | -1.6 | False | |
| Vegas | 2026-09-01 | 94-95 | YES | 7.7 | -7.7 | False | |
| OKC | 2026-09-01 | 101-102 | NO | 5.92 | -5.92 | False | |
| Phoenix | 2026-09-01 | 102-103 | NO | 29.9 | 16.1 | True | |
| SF | 2026-09-01 | 71-72 | NO | 0.65 | -0.65 | False | |
| Austin | 2026-09-01 | 100-101 | NO | 29.58 | -29.58 | False | |
| NewOrleans | 2026-09-01 | 93-94 | NO | 29.58 | 4.42 | True | |
| Miami | 2026-09-02 | 76-77 | NO | 0.96 | -0.96 | False | |
| Miami | 2026-09-02 | 76-77 | NO | 0.96 | -0.96 | False | |
| Boston | 2026-09-02 | 70-71 | NO | 29.64 | 8.36 | True | |
| Denver | 2026-09-02 | >61 | NO | 23.75 | -23.75 | False | |
| Dallas | 2026-09-02 | <96 | YES | 1.02 | -1.02 | False | |
| Seattle | 2026-09-02 | 68-69 | NO | 8.25 | 16.75 | True | |
| Seattle | 2026-09-02 | >57 | NO | 29.7 | 3.3 | True | |
| Houston | 2026-09-02 | 95-96 | NO | 0.07 | -0.07 | False | |
| Boston | 2026-09-03 | Boston | NO | 0.9 | -0.9 | False | |
| Trenton | 2026-09-03 | Trenton | NO | 3.96 | -3.96 | False | |
| Newark | 2026-09-03 | Newark | NO | 2.64 | -2.64 | False | |
| Philly | 2026-09-03 | Philly | NO | 4.2 | -4.2 | False | |
| NYC | 2026-09-03 | NYC | NO | 0.27 | -0.27 | False | |
| Houston | 2026-09-03 | Houston | NO | 0.96 | -0.96 | False | |
| Minneapolis | 2026-09-03 | Minneapolis | NO | 9.84 | -9.84 | False | |
| DC | 2026-09-03 | DC | NO | 6.82 | -6.82 | False | |
| Atlanta | 2026-09-03 | Atlanta | NO | 8.7 | 1.3 | True | |
| Chicago | 2026-09-03 | Chicago | NO | 0.36 | 0.64 | True | |
| Dallas | 2026-09-03 | Dallas | NO | 0.39 | 0.61 | True | |
| Austin | 2026-09-03 | Austin | NO | 2.62 | 1.38 | True | |
| SanAntonio | 2026-09-03 | SanAntonio | NO | 29.12 | 2.88 | True | |
| NewOrleans | 2026-09-03 | NewOrleans | NO | 11.58 | 15.42 | True | |
| DC | 2026-09-04 | DC | YES | 6.0 | -5.4 | evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable, n=21) | |
| Philly | 2026-09-04 | Philly | YES | 10.43 | -3.95 | evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable, n=21) | |
| Philly | 2026-09-04 | Philly | YES | 1.16 | -0.38 | evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable, n=21) | |
| Philly | 2026-09-04 | Philly | YES | 4.25 | -2.16 | evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable, n=22) | |
| Philly | 2026-09-04 | Philly | YES | 8.89 | -7.74 | evening precip 0.000 in (no measurable, n=22) | |
| Dallas | 2026-09-04 | DAL | NO | 9.6 | 0.4 | True | |
| Phoenix | 2026-09-04 | PHX | NO | 9.4 | 0.6 | True | |
| Minneapolis | 2026-09-04 | MIN | NO | 9.3 | -9.3 | False | |
| SF | 2026-09-04 | SFO | NO | 9.3 | 0.7 | True | |
| Chicago | 2026-09-04 | CHI | NO | 9.0 | 1.0 | True | |
| Boston | 2026-09-05 | Boston | NO | 9.6 | 0.4 | True | |
| Philly | 2026-09-05 | Philly | NO | 9.6 | 0.4 | True | |
| Seattle | 2026-09-04 | Seattle | YES | 29.62 | 70.38 | True | |
| Newark | 2026-09-19 | <70 | NO | 2.94 | 0.06 | True | |
| DC | 2026-09-21 | 73-74 | NO | 8.46 | -8.46 | False | |
| Newark | 2026-10-17 | Newark | NO | 9.3 | 0.7 | True |